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Market Eye

Sensex seen at 14k by Budget
16/05/2009 11:08:23

MUMBAI: The euphoria is palpable. A stunning mandate, absence of any Left

interference, and the likely entry of young faces in the new
government could not only
liven up Dalal Street punters and local institutions, but also trigger buying by India-dedicated foreign funds that stayed away from the recent rally.

But it may not be a one-way street for all. There are disturbing rumours that many traders and some big operators have been caught on the wrong foot following UPA’s convincing win. These are people, who, last week, went short on the market by writing call options, buying puts, and building naked futures positions. While some of these players are staring at massive losses, they are clearly in a minority.

According to the average of an ET snap poll of 15 leading brokers and fund managers, the benchmark Sensex is expected to rise between 700 and 800 points on Monday in early trade.

All the respondents expect the mood to be euphoric, and nine of the respondents were of the view that the Sensex could rise to 14,000 by the time of the Union Budget. Two of the respondents expect the Sensex to trade between 12,000 and 13,000 by Budget, while the remaining three declined to give any estimates.

In terms of best-performing sectors, an overwhelming majority of the respondents have placed their bets on banking and infrastructure stocks, expecting them to gain from government spending. The consensus view is that sectors like FMCG, pharma and IT could underperform in the near term.

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